Standard Chartered is forecasting a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value, anticipating it will hit a record high by the second quarter of 2025. This upward trajectory is expected to be driven by a strategic shift away from US-based assets, which many indicators suggest is already gaining momentum.
Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, highlighted in a recent note: “We anticipate a strategic reallocation from US assets, which will likely spark a robust rally in Bitcoin (BTC) in the upcoming months.” He predicts Bitcoin will ascend from its present value of approximately $95,000 to about $120,000 within this quarter, with further gains propelling it towards a year-end target of $200,000.
The bank identifies a mix of favorable elements contributing to this outlook. Notably, the US Treasury futures premium, a metric closely linked with Bitcoin, has reached a 12-year high. Additionally, recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows reveal a shift from gold to Bitcoin, indicating a changing investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets.
Moreover, Bitcoin “whales”—wallets holding over 1,000 BTC—have bolstered their holdings amid the recent market fluctuations. Kendrick observed that: “These so-called ‘whale’ investors have increased their holdings during the tariff-induced price decline and the subsequent recovery triggered by concerns over Fed independence.” He further noted that such investors were also active buyers during significant market events like the previous US election, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
Kendrick stresses the importance of timing in Bitcoin investments, noting that the bulk of returns in recent years have come from abrupt spikes rather than gradual increases. The report highlights: “Investors who timed these moves correctly experienced significant gains, while those who missed out saw total returns that were nearly negligible.”
Recent buying surges in the US and Asia, following President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff delay, have further fueled the demand for non-US assets, including Bitcoin. Looking ahead, Kendrick expects continued support from institutional investors, with impending 13F filings set to reveal increasing holdings by pension and sovereign wealth funds. He also suggests that anticipated US stablecoin legislation later this year could bolster structural price growth.
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