Trade Uncertainty and Export Challenges
The recent report from Allianz Trade titled “Fragmentation and Importing from Friends: Exporters Struggle to Adapt to the Trade War” has highlighted the impact of uncertain US tariff policies on global exporters. According to the study, which surveyed 4,500 exporters from nine significant economies representing nearly 60% of global GDP, 45% of businesses foresee a reduction in export turnover.
Survey Insights on Global Exporters
The survey, conducted in two phases around the US tariff announcements, indicates a dramatic shift in growth expectations and increased risk of payment delays. Despite recent bilateral trade deals, uncertainty remains pervasive, and temporary relief seems unlikely. The survey suggests that strategies focused on ‘importing from friends’ are gaining traction, with Europe and Latin America becoming attractive alternatives for Chinese companies. Meanwhile, European exporters are increasingly eyeing opportunities in China and Asia.
Projected Export Losses and Company Adaptations
Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, stated that the survey results confirm the structural nature of uncertainty and fragmentation across markets. The optimism that existed before the April 2 tariff wave has diminished considerably, exposing vulnerabilities in companies reliant on specific supply chains and export markets. The data reveals that global positive export expectations plummeted from 80% to 40% post-tariff announcements. As a result, 42% of businesses expect a 2-10% drop in export turnover, a significant jump from 5% pre-tariffs. Allianz Trade predicts global export losses could reach $305 billion by 2025, prompting companies to diversify business partners and adapt their logistics strategies.
Price Adjustments and Risk Mitigation Strategies
Most companies are reluctant to absorb increased costs and are not keen on lowering export prices to sustain market share. In the US, 54% of firms plan to raise prices. Sourcing from new markets to mitigate tariff impacts is likely to continue, with this approach being particularly favored in Poland and Spain. Diversifying supply chains and customer portfolios remains a key risk mitigation strategy, with 54% of respondents citing geopolitical and social risks as top threats. Over one-third of surveyed firms have secured new export markets, with nearly two-thirds planning further diversification.
Alternative Shipping Routes and Incoterms Adjustments
To manage customs-related costs, companies are increasingly opting for alternative shipping routes, with 62% of US firms choosing this option. Transportation costs have declined by nearly 50% since early 2025, with oil prices expected to stabilize between $65-70 per barrel. The survey indicates a shift in Incoterms, with businesses preferring suppliers to manage logistics and customs responsibilities.
Geopolitical Dynamics and Payment Terms
Allianz Trade’s survey suggests a continuing divergence between US and Chinese trade relations, despite a temporary delay in tariffs. US companies’ exports to China decreased from 20% to 10%, while Chinese firms’ expectations for North America fell from 15% to 3%. Some US companies manufacturing in China are considering Western Europe and Latin America as alternative markets.
The trade war is also influencing payment terms, with 25% of exporters expecting longer payment periods post-tariff announcements. This reflects a general deterioration in global trade conditions, particularly in the US, Italy, and the UK. Currently, only 11% of exporting companies receive payment within 30 days, with most receiving payment between 30-70 days, varying by sector and company size.
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